FSE Publications
Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030
Journal ArticleAuthors
David Lobell, Marshall Burke, Claudia Tebaldi, Michael D. Mastrandrea, Walter P. Falcon, Rosamond L. Naylor
Published by
Science, Vol. 319, page(s) 607-610
2008
Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change will inevitably favor some crops and regions over others. We present several quantitative criteria that could be used to prioritize these investments, with a focus on global food security impacts by 2030. An analysis of climate risks for 94 crops across 12 food insecure regions is first conducted, based on statistical crop models and climate projections from 20 general circulation models. Subsets of crops are then identified based on different criteria, such as the impacts under best case, most likely, and worst case scenarios. Overall, results indicate South Asia and Southern Africa as two regions that, without sufficient adaptation measures, will likely suffer negative impacts on several crops important to a large food insecure population. The particular crops identified, however, depend on criteria that will vary for different institutions according to their capabilities, goals, and risk attitudes.
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